15504 Enid Dr

Hudson Bend, TX 78734

$399,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 126 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,976/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$785
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$625
• Net cashflow: $-526/mo
• Annual: $-6,316/yr
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-526 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (23.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($351k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $298k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,006 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 12771% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $399k implies a 746% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 1.5% in Hudson Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.