10113 Huntley St

Moon Lake, FL 34654

$270,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 440 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,002/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax + insurance: −$450
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-284/mo
• Annual: $-3,412/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $75,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-284 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (25.9% below list).
• It's been on market 440 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#871 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Elementary School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 642 students, 68% FRL); River Ridge Middle School (math 53% / reading 49%, grade C, #237 of 571 statewide, top 43%, 1,107 students, 48% FRL); River Ridge High School (math 50% / reading 54%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,802 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.9%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 440 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.