54685 Marian View Dr

Idyllwild-Pine Cove, CA 92549

$359,000D+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 895 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,722/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax + insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $37/mo
• Annual: $444/yr
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.44%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $100,520

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($444/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (24.2% below list).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($337k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Idyllwild (269 students, 73% FRL); Hemet High (math 21% / reading 46%, grade F, #656 of 1,170 statewide, top 57%, 2,438 students, 82% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.9% in Idyllwild-Pine Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.