3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,272 sqft ·
Built 1934
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 67 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,460/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$446
Tax + insurance
−$289
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$307
Net cashflow
$419/mo
Annual
$5,033/yr
Cap rate
13.15%
Cash-on-cash
24.50%
DSCR
2.09
1% rule
1.72%
Cash to close
$23,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1934 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1934 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29