30 River St

Stamford, NY 12167

$279,000B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,096 sqft · Built 1895 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,544/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax + insurance: −$570
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$744
• Net cashflow: $767/mo
• Annual: $9,198/yr
• Cap rate: 9.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.63%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $78,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $279k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $279k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#574 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stamford Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #675 of 755 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 5.3% in Stamford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.