4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,733 sqft ·
Built 2024
· Land
· Active
· 35 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,067/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,599
Tax + insurance
−$390
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$434
Net cashflow
$-356/mo
Annual
$-4,277/yr
Cap rate
4.89%
Cash-on-cash
-5.01%
DSCR
0.78
1% rule
0.68%
Cash to close
$85,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $305k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (20.6% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (32.2% below list).
It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $207k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 73/100 on livability (#17 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z7CZGH3W585SWH
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29