2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,016 sqft ·
Built 1972
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 191 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,352/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$198
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$284
Net cashflow
$-47/mo
Annual
$-570/yr
Cap rate
5.97%
Cash-on-cash
-1.16%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-47 ($-570/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (4.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (22.7% below list).
It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $135k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 64/100 on livability (#666 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Forest Ridge Elementary School (math 55% / reading 59%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 708 students, 67% FRL); Citrus Springs Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 821 students, 59% FRL); Lecanto High School (math 46% / reading 53%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 1,630 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 401 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-Z7MZYMBYY3QDFZ
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29