712 Oriole Dr

Lafayette, CO 80026

$122,995D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$1,300
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-131/mo
• Annual: $-1,571/yr
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $34,439

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $100k (18.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $123k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $100k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $850 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#1 in CO, #566 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
• Boulder Valley School District No. Re2 (urban): math 49% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #6 of 86 in CO (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Aspen Creek K-8 School (math 44% / reading 60%, grade C-, #174 of 966 statewide, top 20%, 748 students, 21% FRL); Angevine Middle School (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #90 of 270 statewide, top 34%, 661 students, 44% FRL); Centaurus High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #38 of 381 statewide, top 10%, 1,525 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 32% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,688 units permitted in Boulder County in 2024 (1,136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boulder County population projected at +40% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.6% in Lafayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.