2174 Birch Ave

Buena Vista, VA 24416

$79,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,162 sqft · Built 1898 · SingleFamily · Active · 58 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $290/mo
• Annual: $3,480/yr
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.28%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#217 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Buena Vista City Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Parry Mccluer Middle (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 119 students, 87% FRL); Parry Mccluer High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #295 of 319 statewide, top 93%, 330 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 44% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1898 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Buena Vista city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buena Vista County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.4% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1898 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.