227 Church St

Coldwater, MI 49036

$104,900B-

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,156 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Pending · 67 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,099/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $233/mo
• Annual: $2,793/yr
• Cap rate: 8.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.51%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#270 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Coldwater Community Schools (town): math 26% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #344 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Branch County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Branch County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.3% in Coldwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.