17 Hickory Ln

Beckett, NJ 08085

$289,000C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,051 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,800/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax + insurance: −$423
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $259/mo
• Annual: $3,105/yr
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.84%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.97%
• Cash to close: $80,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (3.1% below list).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#350 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Logan Township School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #147 of 472 in NJ (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 112 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.1% in Beckett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.