3411 S Camino Seco -- #139

Tucson, AZ 85730

$59,995B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,766/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$699
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,381/yr
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.13%
• DSCR: 1.90
• 1% rule: 2.94%
• Cash to close: $16,799

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Miles-Exploratory Learning Center (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #898 of 1,109 statewide, top 83%, 314 students, 42% FRL); Ida Flood Dodge Traditional Middle Magnet School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #84 of 218 statewide, top 41%, 396 students, 52% FRL); University High School (math 90% / reading 90%, grade A+, #1 of 381 statewide, top 0%, 1,060 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 60% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 18% district-wide (+26 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Tucson Unified District (4403) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.