4157 228th Ave NW

St. Francis, MN 55070

$274,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · Built 2019 · Townhouse · Pending · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$254
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-469/mo
• Annual: $-5,626/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.31%
• DSCR: 0.67
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-469 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($258k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $192k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Francis Area Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 301 in MN (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: St. Francis Elementary (math 52% / reading 61%, grade C+, #300 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 654 students, 40% FRL); St. Francis Middle (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 258 statewide, top 68%, 828 students, 32% FRL); St. Francis High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #166 of 471 statewide, top 39%, 1,168 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1,083 units permitted in Anoka County in 2024 (134 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Anoka County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.5% in St. Francis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.