3038 County Road 3038

Kirbyville, TX 75966

$48,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1998 · Manufactured · Pending

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $843/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$252
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$177
• Net cashflow: $334/mo
• Annual: $4,008/yr
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.82%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $13,440

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($843 rent vs $48k).
• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($332 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,133 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Newton ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #661 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP.
• Newton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Metal siding — Severe rust and damage
• Major: Metal roof — Severe rust and damage
• Major: Foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure