874 Carla Pl

Lilburn, GA 30093

$205,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,122 sqft · Built 1984 · Townhouse · Active · 120 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,014/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$368
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $148/mo
• Annual: $1,779/yr
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, amenities B; Watch: commute F.
• Gwinnett County (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #32 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Minor Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #689 of 1,228 statewide, top 58%, 899 students, 80% FRL); Berkmar Middle School (math 16% / reading 28%, grade F, #333 of 470 statewide, top 72%, 1,084 students, 89% FRL); Berkmar High School (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #394 of 424 statewide, top 97%, 3,029 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 47% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-23 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Gwinnett County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,607 units permitted in Gwinnett County in 2024 (1,277 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gwinnett County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.4% in Lilburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,014/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 5533% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.