Reflection Plan

Porter, TX 77365

$383,990F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,730 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 426 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,076/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,105
• Tax + insurance: −$735
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-1,200/mo
• Annual: $-14,401/yr
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.10%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $112,388

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $384k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (40.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 426 days — a 12% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $208k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 426 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.