The Cascade Plan

Carlsborg, WA 98382

$145,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax + insurance: −$650
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-918/mo
• Annual: $-11,011/yr
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.09%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $109,186

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-918 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#493 in WA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, health & safety D, crime D-.
• Sequim School District (town): math 55% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #64 of 291 in WA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greywolf Elementary School (524 students, 50% FRL); Sequim Middle School (568 students, 52% FRL); Sequim Senior High (794 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 933 active listings in the ZIP; 166 units permitted in Clallam County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clallam County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 2.6% in Carlsborg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?