22235 Forest Hill Rd #78

Foresthill, CA 95631

$78,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1972 · Manufactured · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,551/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax + insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $686/mo
• Annual: $8,234/yr
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.70%
• DSCR: 2.68
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $21,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $686 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 39/100 on livability (#1,397 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Placer Union High (suburban): math 39% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #98 of 517 in CA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 3,535 units permitted in Placer County in 2024 (689 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Placer County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 1.7% in Foresthill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.