1139 Redbud Rd #103

Osage Beach, MO 65065

$90,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 471 sqft · Built 1979 · Condo · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$125
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-278/yr
• Cap rate: 5.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.10%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-278/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $87k (3.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($916 rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#338 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Camdenton R-III (rural): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #68 of 324 in MO (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 376 active listings in the ZIP; 272 units permitted in Camden County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Camden County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 0.4% in Osage Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor: kitchen countertops — Dated design