Winchester II Plan

Sunbury, OH 43074

$408,595F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,135 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 953 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,706/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,887
• Tax + insurance: −$917
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-1,667/mo
• Annual: $-20,002/yr
• Cap rate: 2.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.98%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $154,139

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $409k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (24.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (33.8% below list).
• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($360k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $271k (33.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#274 in OH, #4,498 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Olentangy Local (rural): math 81% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #18 of 656 in OH (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 249 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,233 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (304 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.