15101 Cr 384

Tyler, TX 75708

$265,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,368 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 64 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,566/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-594/mo
• Annual: $-7,129/yr
• Cap rate: 3.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.61%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (32.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (40.9% below list).
• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (40.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, commute F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winona El (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 565 students, 90% FRL); Winona Middle (math 42% / reading 41%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 251 students, 87% FRL); Winona H S (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 288 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 64% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.