2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,141 sqft ·
Built 1973
· Condo
· Active
· 49 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,767/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,127
Tax + insurance
−$234
HOA
−$178
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$371
Net cashflow
$-143/mo
Annual
$-1,721/yr
Cap rate
5.49%
Cash-on-cash
-2.86%
DSCR
0.87
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$60,200
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $215k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (11.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (17.8% below list).
It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $177k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F.
Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 602 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $110k; list at $215k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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