1570 Sullivan Trl

Pocono, PA 18372

$420,000F

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 145 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$40
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $-1,006/mo
• Annual: $-12,075/yr
• Cap rate: 3.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.27%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (42.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $227k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-72 appreciation (-0.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 10 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.