36181 Plum Creek Rd

Glade Spring, VA 24340

$168,700C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,537 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,271/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$885
• Tax + insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-33/mo
• Annual: $-394/yr
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.83%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $47,236

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-33 ($-394/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $163k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (24.6% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (24.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#399 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Washington County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #15 of 131 in VA (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Glade Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.