6195 Hwy 263

Fairfield Bay, AR 72560

$89,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Under Contract · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,110/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $355/mo
• Annual: $4,261/yr
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.10%
• DSCR: 1.76
• 1% rule: 1.25%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $355 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Mountain View School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #107 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 5.7% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.