419 Chandler Ave

Johnstown, PA 15906

$53,900B+

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,519 sqft · Built 1912 · SingleFamily · Pending · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $900/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $297/mo
• Annual: $3,568/yr
• Cap rate: 12.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.64%
• DSCR: 2.05
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $15,092

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $54k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($900 rent vs $54k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $52k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $54k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.