221 Welborn Rd

Pickens, SC 29671

$135,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,489 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,349/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,219/yr
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (0.1% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#33 in SC, #4,762 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment F.
• Pickens 01 (rural): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #21 of 80 in SC (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pickens Elementary (math 34% / reading 36%, grade F, #339 of 597 statewide, top 57%, 498 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 42% district-wide (58 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1,440 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (245 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pickens County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $74k; list at $135k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 1.8% in Pickens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.