3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,003 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Active
· 428 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,854/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,308
Tax + insurance
−$416
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$389
Net cashflow
$-260/mo
Annual
$-3,117/yr
Cap rate
5.04%
Cash-on-cash
-4.46%
DSCR
0.80
1% rule
0.74%
Cash to close
$69,860
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (15.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (25.7% below list).
It's been on market 428 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $185k (25.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 4.2% in Green Cove Springs — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 428 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZDYXY22GZFSE08
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29