166 Herkimer St

Buffalo, NY 14213

$189,900A

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,376 sqft · Built 1900 · MultiFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,164/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$664
• Net cashflow: $1,378/mo
• Annual: $16,534/yr
• Cap rate: 15.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.10%
• DSCR: 2.38
• 1% rule: 1.67%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $689/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,164/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1501% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.