511 N 20th St

Escanaba, MI 49829

$188,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 8 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,379/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$986
• Tax + insurance: −$186
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-82/mo
• Annual: $-985/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $52,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $188k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-985/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (26.6% below list).
• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $138k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#161 in MI, #4,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, employment F.
• Escanaba Area Public Schools (town): math 31% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #243 of 540 in MI (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lemmer Elementary School (283 students, 62% FRL); Escanaba Upper Elementary (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #675 of 1,397 statewide, top 48%, 436 students, 53% FRL); Escanaba Juniorsenior High School (math 30% / reading 48%, grade F, #328 of 713 statewide, top 46%, 1,100 students, 44% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Delta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delta County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $188k implies a 581% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.