4 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,100 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Other
· Active
· 64 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$943/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$708
Tax + insurance
−$113
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$198
Net cashflow
$-76/mo
Annual
$-909/yr
Cap rate
5.62%
Cash-on-cash
-2.41%
DSCR
0.89
1% rule
0.70%
Cash to close
$37,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $135k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-909/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (9.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $94k (30.2% below list).
It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $94k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#288 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
Henry County R-I (town): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #270 of 324 in MO (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Henry County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Windsor — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29