3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,207 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Land
· Active
· 254 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,857/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,411
Tax + insurance
−$448
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$-392/mo
Annual
$-4,705/yr
Cap rate
4.54%
Cash-on-cash
-6.25%
DSCR
0.72
1% rule
0.69%
Cash to close
$75,320
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $269k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-392 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (21.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (31.0% below list).
It's been on market 254 days — a 12% lower offer ($237k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $186k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, schools D-.
Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2460 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $269k implies a 1693% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 254 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZFTCXB779X0DSS
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29