413 Greenbay Ave

Calumet City, IL 60409

$89,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,179 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 246 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,813/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $811/mo
• Annual: $9,736/yr
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $811 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Thornton Fractional Twp Hsd 215 (suburban): math 9% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #563 of 620 in IL (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 198 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 8.2% in Calumet City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.