811 Nob Hill Trl

Ponderosa Park, CO 80116

$830,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 3,432 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,353
• Tax + insurance: −$838
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,995
• Net cashflow: $2,315/mo
• Annual: $27,776/yr
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $232,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $830k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $830k).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($780k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $780k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#366 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Douglas County School District No. RE-1 (suburban): math 45% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #7 of 86 in CO (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Franktown Elementary School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade D, #232 of 966 statewide, top 25%, 365 students, 6% FRL); Sagewood Middle School (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #95 of 270 statewide, top 37%, 824 students, 8% FRL); Ponderosa High School (math 36% / reading 65%, grade D+, #93 of 381 statewide, top 24%, 1,402 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,131 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (950 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Douglas County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $232k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.1% in Ponderosa Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.