344 Eron Way #12

Winter Garden, FL 34787

$159,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Pending · 187 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,887/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax + insurance: −$296
• HOA: −$425
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-765/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $44,520

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-765/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $148k (7.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#41 in FL, #804 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tildenville Elementary (math 60% / reading 62%, grade B, #653 of 2,144 statewide, top 31%, 613 students, 35% FRL); Lakeview Middle (math 49% / reading 49%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 843 students, 48% FRL); West Orange High (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 2,816 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 56% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1605 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 9281% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.9% in Winter Garden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?