114 Sawmill Rd

Union, MO 63084

$79,900B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 872 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,043/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $305/mo
• Annual: $3,659/yr
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.35%
• DSCR: 1.73
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#210 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime D.
• Union R-XI (town): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #119 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central Elem. (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 635 students, 49% FRL); Union High (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #247 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,011 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 2.6% in Union — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.