32 Winter Way #6

Lincoln, NH 03251

$629,900B+

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,298 sqft · Built 1984 · Condo · Pending · 66 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $17,471/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,303
• Tax + insurance: −$652
• HOA: −$480
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,669
• Net cashflow: $9,366/mo
• Annual: $112,397/yr
• Cap rate: 24.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 64.18%
• DSCR: 3.86
• 1% rule: 2.77%
• Cash to close: $176,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $630k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9k ($112k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $630k).
• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($592k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $592k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (2.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#57 in NH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Lincoln-Woodstock School District (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #140 of 171 in NH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 487 units permitted in Grafton County in 2024 (127 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grafton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $176k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.3% vs local median 5.9% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.