200 N Maple Ave #613

Falls Church, VA 22046

$265,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 764 sqft · Built 1963 · Condo · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,469/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax + insurance: −$350
• HOA: −$662
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$519
• Net cashflow: $-451/mo
• Annual: $-5,415/yr
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.30%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $74,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $265k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-451 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $247k (6.8% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#9 in VA, #254 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Falls Church City Public School District (suburban): math 84% / reading 89% proficiency, ranked #1 of 131 in VA (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elementary (math 87% / reading 89%, grade A+, #30 of 1,108 statewide, top 3%, 526 students, 7% FRL); Mary Ellen Henderson Middle (math 81% / reading 88%, grade A+, #14 of 342 statewide, top 4%, 581 students, 9% FRL); Meridian High (math 84% / reading 93%, grade A, #11 of 319 statewide, top 3%, 865 students, 10% FRL) — zoned schools at 9% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 97 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 20 units permitted in Falls Church city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Falls Church County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 1.4% in Falls Church — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($169k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?