3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,414 sqft ·
Built 1970
· Condo
· Active
· 29 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,035/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$786
Tax + insurance
−$250
HOA
−$216
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$427
Net cashflow
$356/mo
Annual
$4,267/yr
Cap rate
9.14%
Cash-on-cash
10.17%
DSCR
1.45
1% rule
1.36%
Cash to close
$41,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $148k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#1 in AL, #630 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
Hoover City (urban): math 45% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #8 of 129 in AL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Gwin Elementary School (math 45% / reading 63%, grade C, #96 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 515 students, 44% FRL); Hoover High School (math 46% / reading 47%, grade D-, #17 of 305 statewide, top 5%, 2,841 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).
Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $69k; list at $150k implies a 117% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.4% in Hoover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZHS4DG9XSZMMYV
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29