30802 Coast Unit F9

Laguna Beach, CA 92651

$295,000A-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,716/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$558
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,410
• Net cashflow: $3,201/mo
• Annual: $38,408/yr
• Cap rate: 19.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.46%
• DSCR: 3.11
• 1% rule: 2.28%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($38k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($7k rent vs $295k).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#276 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, crime A; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Laguna Beach Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #343 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $94k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $190k; list at $295k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $83k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.6% vs local median 0.7% in Laguna Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.