1315 Thicket Ave

Crandall, TX 75114

$309,999C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,210 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $382/mo
• Annual: $4,587/yr
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $86,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $382 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (8.4% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#507 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Crandall ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #351 of 826 in TX (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 800 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.3% in Crandall — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.