2740 Brier Creek Rd

Brownsville, KY 42259

$75,000B

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · Built 1972 · Other · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,142/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,810/yr
• Cap rate: 12.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.90%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#234 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edmonson County (rural): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #53 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP.
• Edmonson County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.3% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.