3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,029 sqft ·
Built 1928
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 44 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,069/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$92
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$224
Net cashflow
$464/mo
Annual
$5,565/yr
Cap rate
16.41%
Cash-on-cash
36.14%
DSCR
2.61
1% rule
1.94%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime D.
Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Wichita Falls H S (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,309 students, 66% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZJNYM1CP66TTED
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29