4134 Tarrant Trace Cir

High Point, NC 27265

$190,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 2003 · Townhouse · Pending · 178 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$133
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-302/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.57%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-302/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#31 in NC, #3,084 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, employment D.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in High Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?