2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,106 sqft ·
Built 1979
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 42 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$977/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$682
Tax + insurance
−$112
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$205
Net cashflow
$-22/mo
Annual
$-263/yr
Cap rate
6.09%
Cash-on-cash
-0.72%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.75%
Cash to close
$36,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-263/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (3.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (24.9% below list).
It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#982 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
Ingram ISD (rural): math 58% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #145 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Ingram El (math 61% / reading 44%, grade C-, #720 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 569 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 58% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.1% in Ingram — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZK1J4ZERV201D4
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29