304 Haines Ave

Fairbanks, AK 99701

$55,000B-

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 172 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,126/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $556/mo
• Annual: $6,674/yr
• Cap rate: 18.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.34%
• DSCR: 2.93
• 1% rule: 2.05%
• Cash to close: $15,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#95 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ladd Elementary (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #70 of 156 statewide, top 46%, 437 students, 37% FRL); Tanana Middle School (math 23% / reading 44%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 545 students, 40% FRL); Lathrop High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 61 statewide, top 42%, 886 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 10% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 5.4% in Fairbanks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: siding — Severe weathering and wear on the exterior siding.
• Major: roof — Signs of aging and potential leaks.
• Major: flooring — Worn and uneven condition, likely in need of replacement.
• Major: interior walls — Chipped and dirty paint, indicating neglect.
• Major: kitchen appliances — Cluttered and outdated kitchen appliances.
• Major: bathroom appliances — Cluttered and outdated bathroom appliances.