4715 S State Route 159

Glen Carbon, IL 62034

$168,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax + insurance: −$380
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-207/mo
• Annual: $-2,486/yr
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $47,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (20.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $131k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#236 in IL, #4,344 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Edwardsville CUSD 7 (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #142 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Albert Cassens Elementary (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #443 of 2,056 statewide, top 22%, 470 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 40% / reading 34%, grade F, #167 of 665 statewide, top 27%, 896 students, 0% FRL); Edwardsville High School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #73 of 693 statewide, top 11%, 2,354 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $120k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Glen Carbon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.