Peak (White Pine) Plan

Florence, KY 41042

$59,995B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 236 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,574/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$615
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $214/mo
• Annual: $2,568/yr
• Cap rate: 10.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.29%
• DSCR: 1.68
• 1% rule: 2.62%
• Cash to close: $16,799

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $214 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in KY, #2,763 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Boone County (suburban): math 43% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #12 of 165 in KY (top 7%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ockerman Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #393 of 676 statewide, top 63%, 777 students, 59% FRL); Rector A. Jones Middle School (math 11% / reading 29%, grade F, #206 of 217 statewide, top 95%, 679 students, 74% FRL); Larry A. Ryle High School (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #15 of 254 statewide, top 6%, 2,013 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 30% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Boone County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 271 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,430 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (928 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.6% vs local median 3.4% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.