10 Smithtown Blvd Unit 6A

Nesconset, NY 11787

$374,999F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 820 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,740/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$625
• HOA: −$1,086
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-1,513/mo
• Annual: $-18,152/yr
• Cap rate: 1.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.29%
• DSCR: 0.23
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#180 in NY, #2,780 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Smithtown Central School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Great Hollow Middle School (math 57% / reading 74%, grade A-, #119 of 729 statewide, top 16%, 828 students, 11% FRL); Smithtown High School-West (math 97% / reading 87%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 1,270 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?