2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,385 sqft ·
Built 2001
· Manufactured
· Active
· 148 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,899/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,967
Tax + insurance
−$222
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$819
Net cashflow
$892/mo
Annual
$10,706/yr
Cap rate
9.15%
Cash-on-cash
10.20%
DSCR
1.45
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$105,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $375k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $892 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $375k).
It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $330k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#132 in CA, #4,576 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
San Luis Coastal Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #118 of 517 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $105k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Luis Obispo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,899/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 2050% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-ZKGAMN99ZJNRSV
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29